[Patriam1066]

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I will be surprised if Tesla makes it through 2019 without going bankrupt. They are not down because they laid off 7% of their workforce, but because no one wants to buy the Model 3: only 30-40,000 new orders in Q4 despite pulling demand forward due to the tax credit expiring. They have finished the American backlog and European homologation was bungled to the point that they won't be able to sell anything there before Q1 finishes.

Q1 is going to be a bloodbath. Even Elon in his latest memo said something like 'with a huge amount of hard work and luck we might be able to break even in Q1'. This is from the most optimistic (or most fraudulent, depending on your viewpoint) guy in the world who previously claimed that investors should have 'no concern at all that Tesla would fail to produce 10,000 M3/week by the end of 2018'.

Keep in mind that even if Tesla were able to maintain $300m a quarter, at a generous auto P/E of 10 that equates to a $12 billion valuation and a share price of $50. So the market is pricing in 6x growth, only Tesla has already maxed out the Fremont plant and cannot possibly grow at all without Shanghai, which won't be ready for another year even on Tesla's literally-always-wrong timeline. Rising interest rates/QT and the end of the business cycle also do not bode well for Tesla's long term survival.

If you have channel traded Tesla in the past successfully, more power to you. It's been a great trade. Just keep in mind that's inherently a short vol strategy and those have a way of blowing up spectacularly. If Tesla ever breaks $230 or so to the downside it will likely fall a long way.

really good post dude

how can you be this knowledgeable about mathematics but be such a dolt when it comes to politics? Have you sought Christ?