Just a heads up, in case you're under the belief that trivial means you have 95% success rate. It doesn't. Your chance of success is: MIN(SKILL - (.75*trivial) + 51.5, 95), so you need a skill of 103 to have 95% success. You can see what your success is now by just plugging it in, it's around 74%. Even at 88, it's only slightly better.
In my opinion, you are better served just making them now, making a profit at the same time as getting skillups (sell backpacks for 60, buy skins for 30). If you really just want the backpack and not the skillups, then someone will probably make it for you for free if you ask nicely in the tunnel.
If you don't want to risk the HQ bear pelt, then just skip it and move to the next step on the wiki, the crystalline silk masks, which are easier to farm than the bear pelts.
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