There is no evidence that you can logically form that would provide a clear-cut answer to this.
The client contains no knowledge of what determines a tradeskill skillup, only that its skills are improved. Without extensive samples, it's hard to say. Try making a 250 recipe on live at skill 1-50, and see how many times it skills up.
See: msg_skillimprove in 2008 eqgame.
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