Quote:
Originally Posted by koros
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I think the problem here is this method assumes the distribution to be normal. This isn't the case with EQ. I think the better way to do this is to assign each hit to a 1-20 mapping within the damage interval and use a bootstrapping method. Also since these logs have different max hits, the drakes must be different level. This is going to skew things wildly.
The math behind the ac equation is probably pretty linear, so we can almost certainly use a lower level mob to determine an equation instead of hard to parse drakes.
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The differing levels are definitely an issue, and I'm probably going to fix that at some point. Sakuragi's parse is actually a combination of multiple fights in an effort to increase sample size (low level glimmers are 180-380, high level are 196-396, and there are some in between I think).
I'm not sure what you mean by a normal distribution; I'm already removing the D20. Min hits in the first are 180, max hits are 380, and interval hits are all other hits. I did kind of mutilate the Wilson Interval by representing it as a binomial rather than a multinomial but my suspicion is that a bootstrap method wouldn't reduce the confidence interval massively. However, I'd be curious to see anything you come up with there.