If you take it to the extreme "per tick" limit, and work the opposite way, like cheating on a maze...
With one tick left on a mobs 16 hour window, there is a 100% chance of it spawning on that final tick, if it hasn't spawned yet.
With two ticks left, the mob has a 50% chance to spawn on the second to last tick, and a 50% chance to spawn on the last tick.
With three ticks left, the mob has a 33% chance to spawn on each of the ticks...
With four ticks left... 25%
With five ticks left... 20%
I think this is what you might be getting at? If this is the case, with only a minute left on a 16 hour window, you'd still only be at a 10% chance of the mob spawning on that tick. Any individual tick more than a minute out would be very unlikely to spawn the dragon. Practically, it makes more sense to start camping something closer to the end of its window, but of course then you run the risk of missing an earlier pop. Where that line in the sand is drawn most likely will come down to how important of a target it is, and how much time you're willing to waste in an elf sim :P Sounds like a fun math problem, if you could put some weight on those last two variables.
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