Objective Data After 50 Tserrina kills Over 95 Hours...
New Rates (from 95 hours this week)
1) Bats Respawn: every 60 minutes
2) Tserrina Appearance Rate: 50 appearances in 380 bats or 1 in 7.6
3) Robe Drop: 0 in 50 kills
1) Bats Respawn: every 60 minutes
As commented above, the bat respawn rate on Live changed from ~45 minutes to 60 minutes but the timeline is a bit hazy. Some point to a 2005 patch and others to a 2001 patch. If the latter is true, then the change was accurately reflected on p99.
2) Tserrina Appearance Rate: 50 appearances in 380 bats or 1 in 7.6
Her long-term average appearance rate is 1 every 7.6 bats, meaning that if you stay for four bats, then you have a 43.1% chance of seeing her spawn. But if you stay for 8 bats, that rises to 67.7% of the time. Pushed out a bit farther, if you stay for 16 bats or four cycles, on p99 there is a 1 in 10 chance that you won't see her pop. This has happened to me twice already and doesn't seem classic. I don't see any evidence that people were camping her for four straight cycles and coming up empty.
3) Robe Drop: 0 in 50 kills
Symbol 26x (52.0%)
Staff 20x (40.0%)
Whip 4x (8.0%)
Robe 0x (0.0%)
Total Drops 50x
If the Robe is a "very rare" drop (coded at 1 in 20) as Telin describes, then our lack of drops could be blamed on bad luck. The probability of getting a 1 in 20 drop if you stay for 50 named kills is 92.3% - so 7.7% of the time you don't see it. I can only comment on my personal experiences, but I know two others who I'm camping with that have been here 3+ days longer than I have. So my 0 for 50 is more realistically a 0 in 75 and the 7.7% is more like 2.1%.
Another possible explanation is the drop rate is currently broken, which may have happened in the January 31, 2016 patch that gave her a last name. But there is player evidence above stating the robe has dropped since January 31, so it may be a more recent change that bugged her table.
Lastly, and this has been my point for a few days now, is the 1 in 20 coding of the Robe is not classic. There is no evidence on Allakazams that it was ever this rare, being an uncommon drop at worst with a long-term average rate of ~1 in 6 or 1 in 8. The only data on Magelo is pretty lousy with only 1 data point, but even that is 1 in 15.
My Request
1. Can a Dev (Telin?) please look into the Robe drop rate to ensure it's not currently broken.
2. Can a Dev or GM please comment on where the 1 in 20 came from, and when it was changed as this has not been the players experience on p99 to date and was not a classic experience either.
Killing her 75 times and not getting the robe once this week, while other players on p99 have seen two robes drop in an evening session feels like more than just bad luck. If the robe is supposed to be 1 in 8 drop, then the chances of getting it once in 75 kills is 99.996%.
Thanks,
Zentile
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