You aren't guaranteed 2 Pained Souls in 100 cycles.
Each spawn is independent and has a 2% chance of being Pained Soul. The appearance or non-appearance of Pained Soul does not affect the next cycle. Sitting there does not increase the chance that any single random cycle will be Pained Soul. However, your probability of seeing a Pained Soul overall goes up for each additional spawn you witness. Another thing skewing people's experiences/perceptions is that once someone gets the Pained Soul they usually leave so they aren't killing anymore place holders that would further modify their ratio of place holder to Pained Soul.
The person that walks up to the camp for the first time and sees Pained Soul spawned has a 100% spawn ratio. Then there are other people that put 60+ hours into it before they get it.
40 hours = 2400 minutes = 144000 seconds
spawn time = 6 minutes 40 seconds = 400 seconds
Kill time of 60 seconds -- 144000 / (400+60) = ~312 place holders, 1 pained soul
Kill time of 40 seconds -- 144000 / (400+40) = ~326 place holders, 1 pained soul
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