Random math, based on data taken from the Wiki. If the Wiki is accurate, then so is what follows:
If the trivial for an item is 67 or lower, then your chance of a successful combine is either:
95%
OR
(Skill) - (Trivial) + 66
Whichever is lower (to a minimum of 5%, because there's always a 5% chance of success, just like there's always a 5% chance of failure).
What this means is that if your skill is equal to the trivial level of something with a trivial of 67 or lower, you have a 66% chance of a successful combine and a 34% chance of failure.
If you want to get the absolute minimum chance for failure (5%) for an item with a trivial of 67 or lower, your skill needs to be 29 points higher. So FOR EXAMPLE: If you are making Bear Steaks (Trivial 41), you need to have a skill of 70 in order to have a 95% chance of success.
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If you are crafting an item with a trivial level of 68 or higher, the chance of success is either
95%
or
(Skill) - (0.75 x Trivial) + 51.5
whichever is lower (always a 5% chance of success and failure, yadda yadda yadda).
The interesting thing here is: If your skill is 175 or higher, you have the minimum 5% failure rate on things with trivial levels higher than your skill level.
FOR EXAMPLE: The Embroidered Coldain Shawl (once they put it in) has a trivial level of 208. But you don't need a skill of 208 to get the maximum chance of success. If your tailoring skill is 200, your chance of a successful combine on the Embroidered Coldain Shawl is 95%. Raising your skill above 200 won't improve your chance of success because you're already at the max chance of success.
If your skill is 250 (max currently in game), you can make things up to a trivial level of 275 with the maximum chance of success.
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