Good discussion. Here's my perspective. I started here on November 7, 2014 after playing in a progression guild on EQ Live called <Lost in Progression>.
Well, all five guilds you mentioned raid. However, only <Holocaust> and <Azrael> (+<Friends>?) have enough VP-keyed members to raid Veeshan's Peak, from which the top tier of loot comes (until Velious). <The Curse> and <Fresh> raid other targets/zones including the Plane of Fear, PoHate, PoSky, Vox, Nagafen, Ragefire, Ixiblat, Faydedar, Chardok, The Hole, and more.
As far as I know, most or all members of <Friends> have faction in Chardok, as well as possibly other zones (The Hole, I believe). They use this faction - along with their high level of gear and, I admit, skill - to disrupt, wipe, and kill other guilds in these zones. I'm sure someone will say "it's classic," but I'm sure it doesn't win them any friends; and it makes you wonder if they are doing anything that a new player would want to be part of.
And as to lower-level twink PKs - since the tiny-guild purge of early 2015, most of them are unguilded, though their mains could be in almost any major guild. I don't know of any way to prove this other then admission.
I had so many thoughts on this topic that I started my own thread. I'd love to hear your thoughts on it.
http://www.project1999.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=189125
I and many other players have a vision that a new player should be able to come to Red99 and eventually participate in PvE and PvP at the highest level his/her skills and schedule will permit.
The obstacle to this is a guild with which there can be no competition due to (1) overwhelming numbers and (2) a gear gap between top-tier members of each guild. The gear gap itself could be attributed to these overwhelming numbers, as well as to some players having played on the server for much longer. This guild is currently <Holocaust>. (The other obstacle would be twink PKs/griefers, but most mature players are not sufficiently demoralized by occasional unwinnable PvP to actually quit.)
Then again, I am not sure competition with <Holocaust> is impossible; and I will not be sure until I myself have fought their top-tier members several times. Has anyone ever fought 20v60? If the smaller force is better organized, disciplined, and committed to PvP, does it always turn out the same way or is it possible?
Anyway, back to your line of thought, <Fresh> and <The Curse> are, in fact, changing the server by successfully contesting the older guilds with characters who were created within the last six months, showing the community that new players can come to Red99, engage in successful mass PvP, and have an awesome time.