Been thinking about this a bit more.
Faz said the flurries were omitted from the log he posted Koros.
Quote:
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It never flurries, so it was almost certainly crippled by this point in the fight.
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Even if he could have been crippled it would have had no affect on his Flurry rate since this is based off of NPC CHA.
Anyways, on Torven's sheet it shows AoW to have a Flurry Rate of 5%, so it should be between 20-25% chance to flurry each round.
Koros in your calculations is there a reason you omitted Ripostes and Bash/Kick? NPC's reset their Bash/Kick timer each time they Flurry (and Rampage I think) so he is guaranteed two chances in a Flurry round. 254 is max bash damage I think? Or 254 + x?
I use Faz log and come up with this for total damage possible
Max
704 x 8
254 x 2
704 x 1
6844 Total
DI 8-10 (50%)
704 x 4
614 x 4
254 x 2
614 x 1
6394 Total
4 Normal/4 Flurry/2 Bash/1 Riposte
Using the number you came up with (0.0015%) it would happen 1.5 times in a 25 minute fight