Thank you Cecily and Steel Warrior, exactly what I was looking for!
Based on that formula:
10 slot backpacks - 82 skill with 88 trivial. Should succeed 66.7%, actual success was 16.7%. Crap luck.
Level 39 spells - 120 skill with 122 trivial. Should succeed 80%, actual was about 20%. Crap luck again.
To the trolls, fuck off but do have a very Merry Christmas!
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