Quote:
Originally Posted by Kender
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the chance shouldnt change. the chance is always 35%.
it's the accumatated chances that mean the likelyhood of a memblur event will occur that works out at 50% 80% etc
Their numbers are a little off though
The chance of at least 1 mem blur calc...
failed blur chance .65 so the formula is 1 - .65(to the power of n) where n is the number of flops
results (rounded to 2 decimal places)
1 = 0.35 (1-.65*.65)
2 = 0.58 (1-.65*.65*.65)
3 = 0.73 (1-.65*.65*.65*.65)
4 = 0.82 (1-.65*.65*.65*.65*.65)
5 = 0.88 (1-.65*.65*.65*.65*.65*.65)
6 = 0.92 (1-.65*.65*.65*.65*.65*.65*.65)
7 = 0.95 (1-.65*.65*.65*.65*.65*.65*.65*.65)
8 = 0.97 (1-.65*.65*.65*.65*.65*.65*.65*.65*.65)
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Thanks for you input. And this describes what they refer to as the old FD. Where each chance is the same. Their new description is not the same, but at higher attempts the results do converge.
I do not believe they did some hand waving to give the illusion that the mechanics changed.
H