Quote:
Originally Posted by Elements
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More bull shit numbers based on faulty premises. Just stop the propaganda.
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Let's look at the numbers then, and measure solely the number of spawns where a Class C (hardcore) guild has the opportunity to compete for. Because that's what this is all about, right?
Based on a 30-day cycle, we know that the mobs that spawn at 7 days +/- 48 hours spawn, on average, 4.2857 times during the 30-day cycle. This is mathematical fact. I confirmed it by running trials in Excel over 5000 iterations with a random time from spawn-to-kill between 0-60 minutes, just to make sure I hadn't forgotten basic math... It comes out to 4.28-4.29 every damn time. Lets go ahead and round to 4.3 for simplicity's sake.
Reducing variance as Rogean proposed does not change that number... it only reduces the tracking window needed. That is good for all of us. Again, I ran trials with 72-hour, 48-hour, 24-hour, and 12-hour variance just to make sure the math wasn't eluding me. Still, 4.3 spawns of a particular mob per 30 days.
So prior to the raid suspension, hardcore guilds had 4.3 opportunities a month to kill a given mob a the 7 day +/- 48 hour cycle. Bear with me...
Rogean stated the 1/1/1 plan would include between 2-4 simulated patch day respawns per month. So lets say an average of 3. At first this doesn't mean very much, because a full re-pop would under normal mechanics reset the spawn timers of normal spawn cycles.
Until Rogean added that nilbog supported the continuation of normal spawn timers during a simulated respawn. Unless I am misunderstanding, now we can add an average of 3 extra spawns per month due to full repops to that 4.3 we're already seeing.
At this point, the hardcore guilds have no more argument that they are being negatively impacted. Here is why:
Now there are 7.3 respawns of a 7 day +/- 48 hour cycle mob in a 30 day period. Of these, they would rotate between Class C, Class R, and FFA per the 1/1/1 plan. Rogean has stated that full repops would not change what status a particular mob would fall under... it simply rotates across those categories each time it spawns, however it spawns (normal vs. forced). Over 219 spawns (thirty 30-day periods), it follows that 73 of them would be Class C, 73 would be Class R, and 73 of them would be FFA.
The opportunity for hardcore guilds to compete on these spawns is obviously the sum of Class C and FFA mobs, since they can't touch Class R. The difference is of course that they have fewer guilds to compete against in Class C than in FFA, but the point remains the same: they have the opportunity to compete for them and that's supposedly what competition is all about. That is 146 spawns over thirty 30-day periods they have the opportunity to compete for.
Divide that by 30 to get the number of spawns they have an opportunity to compete for in a 30-day period....
surprise, it's 4.86 spawns of a particular mob on the 7 day +/- 48 hour spawn cycle.
So there you have it.
The hardcore's reluctance to accept the 1/1/1 plan in which they get the opportunity to compete for more mobs than they already do is all about denying pixels to others. We have mathematical proof that under Rogean's plan they would get the opportunity to compete against 4.86 spawns a month compared to the 4.3 they have had the opportunity to compete for in the past.