Quote:
Originally Posted by r00t
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All you people saying it increases your odds 17%, to 50% are wrong according to my computer simulation and vos savant herself.
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Those who swap always get the opposite of their original choice, so those who swap have 2/3 chance of winning the car (Carlton 2005).
The outcome is fairly obvious from the 1 line of code
Code:
return (switch_doors) ? !doors[choice] : doors[choice];
If you switch, you invert your choice. You had a 2/3 chance of being wrong the first time (1/3 chance of winning) |
You are correct by the way the question was phrased. You have a 17% better chance when switching if you select a random option (switch or don't switch). If you always switch vs. never switch then the scenario plays out like your simulation.