So after this ~100 hour camp, confirmed it is incorrectly in the variance mechanic and looks like next patch will bring him back to static 7 day
http://www.project1999.org/forums/sh...d.php?t=113446
I can also confirm that the 2 wandering skeleton/bear spawns are not related to Lich. They do happen to walk similar paths and one of the spawn points is shared, but its not dependent. They were on 7 hour cycles and lich spawned 3 hours after I cleared them most recently.
(still did not get him though... I left my volume set too low and didn't wake up in time)