Success Rate Black Panther Armor
 

The wiki says that items with a 300+ trivial (like Black Pantherskin Armor) have a 95% fail rate up to skill level 205, and cap out at 50% fail rate at 250. Can anyone confirm?

Mostly. See my post on the tainted avalanche ale thread a little further down the forum for specific formulas for trade skill success.

I have an approximately 50% success rate on making Mind Melt (triv 322) with 242 Poison Making. I haven't done a statistical analysis to prove confidence intervals or anything and my sample size is only a few dozen, but it feels like its probably close to the predicted success rate based on the formula (51% at my skill)

I was 250 tailor on red before quitting, did lots of black panther and haze combines. Ive made 2 out of 3. Ive failed 7-9 in row, ive made 4 out of 5, ive made 6 in row. When people farm mats i tell them to assume i can make 1 out of 3 pieces to be on safe side.

Does Andain really quit though?

You are the honorary father of the good guy brigade.

Same, I always tell people to bank on 1-in-3 combines. Anything above that is a bonus really.