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Rodeojones1979 09-23-2018 09:23 AM

Explain drop rarity?
 
Good morning, team,

Can someone explain to me how to interpret the drop rarity as seen on the p99 Wiki? Take Sentient Armor for example. Under A Suit of Sentient Armor, each peice is listed as:

(Rare) [1] 1x 75% (8%)

I interpreted this as any one of the armor peices drops 8% of the time. But I spent a couple hours trying to farm them last night and didn't see a single one drop. It felt silly! I certainly could have bought a whole set from the takings of just plat farming elsewhere.

Can someone explain this for me? Thanks!

Qtip 09-23-2018 09:31 AM

E*=*mc2. Ive said to much... For more information. Contact your contact.

Jimjam 09-23-2018 09:52 AM

75% of the time the mob will drop X1 item from its loot list [1], with an 8% chance this item will be the one dropped.


Think of black bears.

50% of the time They may drop one of:
- ruined 50%
- Lq 35%
- Mq 10% OR
- Hq 5%

AND

100% of the time they may drop two of:
- bear meat 50%
- nothing 50%

(Ie 25% nothing, 50% 1 bear meat, 25% 2 bear meat)

And 50% of the time they may drop:
-chunk of meat 100%

(Ie half the time they always drop a chunk of meat)

Or that is something like how it works...

So the hq bear skin would be [1] 1x50% (5%)

Teppler 09-23-2018 09:53 AM

Each drop is less than 1% chance for that armor according to the site I use.

Legidias 09-24-2018 09:31 AM

RNG so you might see 5 pieces drop in a row, or more likely 500 suits with 0 drops

Cecily 09-24-2018 09:40 AM

The gambler’s fallacy informs us that our probability of a specific result is directly proportional to number of attempts in games of chance (EQ), provided the data set was properly encoded. A paucity of data skews the results to be statistically relevant by 3 or more standard deviations.

fadetree 09-24-2018 10:21 AM

^ Truth.

Rodeojones1979 09-24-2018 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cecily (Post 2779801)
The gambler’s fallacy informs us that our probability of a specific result is directly proportional to number of attempts in games of chance (EQ), provided the data set was properly encoded. A paucity of data skews the results to be statistically relevant by 3 or more standard deviations.

This is definitely the case, but it did feel like the drop rate was lower than what is documented on P99.

Teppler, what site are you using?

Muggens 09-24-2018 01:33 PM

Dont think about drop rates, just go try get ur drops and have a positive belief u will get it. Ive never spent a long time on a camp

Rodeojones1979 09-25-2018 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muggens (Post 2779913)
Dont think about drop rates, just go try get ur drops and have a positive belief u will get it. Ive never spent a long time on a camp

This is correct.


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