Project 1999 - Derakor's Drop Table

Project 1999 (/forums/index.php)

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- - Derakor's Drop Table (/forums/showthread.php?t=204919)

Derakor's Drop Table

I know it's early but I feel like Derakor's drop table is wrong. The loot distribution is supposed to be:

Chestplate (55%) - Common
Boots (24%) - Uncommon
Ear (8%) - Rare

Magelo

The numbers in parentheses above are the Magelo drop percentages.

Allakhazam

September 2001:

Quote:

4) His drops, in order of most to least common, are the Chestplate of Vindication, Boots of the Vindicator and the Living Thunder Earring.

Thus far on blue I think we have see 1 Chest, 1 Boot, 3 Earrings. Also on Beta we saw 2 Earrings, 1 Chest, 1 Boot. I know - Small sample size but I wanted this mentioned so it can be looked at in the code to verify the drop rate is set to be Chest -> Boots -> Ear in common -> rare order.

red has been 2 chestplates, 1 boots, 1 earring

confirmed more classic everquest experience than blue

Drop rates are as intended. Small sample size.

So 4 Ears, 1 Boots, 1 BP so far on blue.

If the spread was 60% BP/30% Boots/10% Ear which is what the Magelo data suggests, we are looking like that's some very horrible luck.

Your sample size is WAY too low

The reason I posted was this is like getting 4 Hands of the Reaper off 6 Embalming Fluids. It seems off but it is possible. Alunova confirmed though so it appears fine.

Quote:

Originally Posted by heartbrand (Post 1996818)

Your sample size is WAY too low

Really, because binomial distribution says there is a 0.0002958% chance of getting 5 earrings out of 9 drops.

(9 C 5 )(.08)^5 * (1-.08)^4

You need a big sample size to determine drop percentages.

You don't need a big sample size to determine the rarity of an event occurring.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ddxdy (Post 1996851)

No, it's a steady 8% chance across the board. The likelihood might be less than 1%, tho.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samoht (Post 1996854)

No, it's a steady 8% chance across the board. The likelihood might be less than 1%, tho.

Quote:

In probability theory and statistics, the binomial distribution with parameters n and p is the discrete probability distribution of the number of successes in a sequence of n independent yes/no experiments, each of which yields success with probability p.

In this case success is an earring dropping.

The formula is: https://upload.wikimedia.org/math/1/...3ecca9df5d.png

Probability or p of a "yes" is 8% or .08.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/math/1/...3ecca9df5d.png = (9 C 5 )(.08)^5 * (1-.08)^(9-5) = 0.0002958% chance of getting a "yes" 5 out of 9 times with a probability of 8%.

It's fully possible that it was just "bad luck," but chances are there is something else at play. For comparison, the odds of getting struck by lightning in your life are .00033%. You literally have a better chance of getting struck by lightning than getting 5 earrings out of 9 kills @ 8% drop rate.

Chance of earring dropping does not decrease after the first earring drop, just like it does not increase if the earring does not drop. Flat 8% each time.

Chance of earring dropping 5 out of 9 times is 8%.

8% chance it drops again next time, too.