Gnoll scroll drop percentages
 

So I've been farming gnoll scrolls as kind of an experiment to confirm or deny that one particular scroll is more or less common than another, which has always been a rumor. I'll often see people insist that #1 is more rare.

After farming them extensively for a few days it seems like they all have roughly an equal 25% chance to drop provided you don't already have a scroll. However, about 80% of the time once I loot a scroll, regardless of which one it is, the next scroll I attempt to loot will be a duplicate of the first one and thus I can't loot it cause they're lore. Often, even the 2nd or 3rd one I try to loot will still be a duplicate, which seems incredibly unlikely. If they all have an equal 25% chance to drop, it should be a fairly rare occurrence that the 2nd scroll you loot is the same as the one you already have, but instead that seems to happen much more often than it doesn't.

Is it possible there's some piece of code that scans your inventory, and if you already have a scroll or scrolls, the next gnoll you kill will be more likely to drop the one(s) you already have, maybe to discourage people from mass farming them for the xp? Cause just statistically it seems really strange how they drop. Granted it could just be really bad luck on my part, but having farmed them for multiple days now I think I have a decent sample size.

The percentages a given scroll drop is exactly equal, however the reason why people get confused and think 1 is rarer, is because the outdoor gnolls will never drop scroll 1, and can only drop scrolls 2, 3 or 4 at equal percentages, but inside, 1 2 3 4 all drop equally. This means that if your counting an equal hunt of all the gnolls inside and out looking for these, then yes, 1 will show up less often.

If only there was a resident gnoll scroll expert who collected 2,348 scrolls...

Equal chance. Outside gnolls never drop 1.

Cheers.

Well for what it's worth, my post was based strictly on hunting inside paw. I'm farming on a 60 and I don't want to bug the people hunting outside or the entrance groups inside so I just run in invised until I'm not bothering anybody.

And the rarity of scroll #1 isn't even my issue, it's the fact that once you loot any of the four possible scrolls, the next scroll you loot based on my testing seems to be the same one you already have like 80% of the time. If each scroll can drop 25% of the time, it should be somewhat rare that you get a duplicate right off the bat; if you have no scrolls and then loot scroll #2, for example, the likelihood that the next scroll you loot will be 1, 3 or 4 should be greater than the chance #2 drops again. But regardless of which scroll I get first, the second scroll I get is a duplicate of the first one about 80% of the time. Which seems statistically impossible, unless there's some code that biases the drops based on what is already in your inventory.

I'll guess you're victimized by P1999's notoriously streak-prone nature.

Nah, just negative nancy bias. People focus on the times things don't work haha.

No I actually kept track of every kill over the course of three days doing this. So, bad luck I guess? I'm willing to accept it's just bad luck, but if so it's *reallly* bad luck.

Hmm.

Let's say it worked out in a break even scenario:

First ones the gimmie

Let's say next ones bad luck damn.

Next one unique and now your 50 percent.

Oops damn another miss.

Oops damn another miss.

Hey got number three.

Duplicate.

Duplicate.

Duplicate

Duplicate

Hey there it is.


This is a good break even scenario right?

You were looking for four, but 11 dropped to finish a set right? Those misses are annoying though but this is a run of the mill break here.

Now imagine an unlucky scenario :p



I didn't write it out this way to insult anyone on how statistics might go, but just to illustrate the pattern of annoyance as you loot them.

guy its everquest the game dont know what scrolls you rollin deep in and what ones you need

If you're a druid or enchanter, you may want to do what I used to do outside. When you get a dupe scroll, charm "a gaduladian widemouth" if Druid (since it's a snake) or anything if enchanter, put it in their inventory and log out. Kill him once you turn in your current set to collect your other dupes, put any more dupes on another snake/mob.