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-   -   Guise cease to drop date (/forums/showthread.php?t=354557)

Velerin 04-10-2020 11:18 PM

After 3 stints of 17+ hours before I finally got my boots (had to drop 2x at #2 due to RL) the average drop rate is about 3-4 hrs. I’ve seen 3 in a row and nothing for 12 hours. She’s about a 50% pop rate and drops boots about 20-25% of the time. When I finally got it, it took 18 hr, starting at 8, 1 person dropped, 7 boots. Make sure you got 24 hours to do it, start early am EST for best start, and don’t be afraid to bail if you get a bad streak and are 16 hours in and still #6 before you’re 24 hours in and #3 and too committed to leave.

Vizax_Xaziv 04-11-2020 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zephire (Post 3109730)
Meh, my jboot camp lasted just under 9 hours.

All luck of the draw

How long ago did u list for them though? 9 hours is less than half of shortest time I've seen reported....

Aties 04-11-2020 10:38 AM

I'll share my records, rates on the Wiki seem fairly consistent with what I saw.

Journeyman's Boots - 3/13/2020
Quote:

  • P(Drelzna) = 40.09% (18/44)
  • P(Boots|Drelzna) = 33.33% (6/18)
  • P(Boots on the next pop) = 13.63% (6/44)

Total Duration - 13:53:01
Hours per Boot - 2:18:50
Source
Guise of the Deceiver - 3/31/2020
Quote:

  • P(Assassin) = 25% (8/32)
  • P(Guise|Assassin) = 87.5% (7/8)
  • P(Guise on the next pop) = 21.875% (7/32)

Total Duration - 15:09:55
Hours per Guise - 2:09:59
Source
Couple of tips:
  • Bring booze to work on Alcohol Tolerance
  • Have the top 6 people in the list be in the same group
  • If you do not participate you may be booted from the list

Quote from GM/Guide Medris:
Quote:

Just to make sure the policy IS clear - if you are on a list, you need to be participating - ESPECIALLY as you get to the top few spots on the list (although ideally the whole list is helping)

Cen 04-11-2020 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aties (Post 3110042)
I'll share my records, rates on the Wiki seem fairly consistent with what I saw.

Journeyman's Boots - 3/13/2020


Guise of the Deceiver - 3/31/2020


Couple of tips:
  • Bring booze to work on Alcohol Tolerance
  • Have the top 6 people in the list be in the same group
  • If you do not participate you may be booted from the list

Quote from GM/Guide Medris:

Nice above curve results on your guise compared to the 16% probability. I attempted guise a few days before you and it was unfortunate, I had to quit at number 1 after about 30 hours because I had the unfortunate situation of being the high number on a 10 hour dry streak. If I do try again, which I probably won't, ill drop if there's bad luck from the getgo, since it means ill be dying even if things go well after that.

Yacoby44 04-14-2020 01:11 AM

Am I fucking hallucinating or does this link say June 2020 with May crossed out for Legacy item removal? Guys? Guise???


http://i.imgur.com/YnbWzEo.png

Menenolly 04-14-2020 02:52 AM

I started my guise camp on Saturday at 10pm and got it on Monday at 2am. I started the list at #8 and was #2 after approx. 12 hours. One person below me wasn't paying attention and got agro by being too close to the ladder and died, then died a second time spending too much time away from the camp. Another person failed when their internet went out. He came back much later (with better luck I hope). The person who won the final guise in the first 12 hours camped out with out clicking the mask which doomed the rest of us to a 14hr ish dry spell. The shaman at #1 had at least a 40 hour wait to get his mask (shiver). I then got my mask 2 hours later so 28 hours total.
What I noticed at the guise camp, if any are curious, is that you don't need a stack of IVU potions. You just need enough to get to the camp and when you leave. You'll be hanging out up the ladder in the room killing 3 mobs every 28 minutes unless you pull more from below. The six lowest on the list will be in a group and they will be active most of the time. When #1 get his/her/they/it's mask the new #6 will get invited to the group. Those not in the group can be active or not, doesn't really matter but it does get the mobs deader faster when they do help. I chose to be active all 28 hours except for a 20 minute break at the 23 hour mark. That 10 minute popup is annoying by the way. There will be plenty of Supplier bags dropping with some daggers as well thrown in by the not-so-helpful Assassin but don't expect to see a thick banded belt drop. And don't bring a abu box with you I saw I think 4 drop there. I met some nice peeps there which helped a bunch along with plenty of caffeine drinks and a marathon of bad Rifftrax movies.

Goodluck on your attempt. Also running into the wall just before Assassin spawns and turning around in barrels seemed to help.

baue1446 04-15-2020 03:03 PM

I was on the first list with Frog and fell asleep after 17 hours was at position 3(i know weak sauce) But im glad i did because for me to get my mask it would of taken me 19 hours more to get it in that list. So then i joined on Monday at 3am and got it after 19 hours. Which is pretty close to even as far as total time. But 40+ hours straight compared to two 17-19 hour is a MUCH different camp.

This weekends crew got 2 HUGE droughts of 15+ hours between drops. The one on monday never had more than a 3 hour drought. So it went pretty quick.

magnetaress 04-15-2020 03:20 PM

ya guk be like that dont ever expect a drop to happen 25 % of the time it will maybe happen 25% of the time lol

White_knight 04-15-2020 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cen (Post 3109410)
Thursday at 10PM. https://i.imgur.com/m2iSQuf.png
That's not too bad for lately. You'll wait about 25-30 hours on average for that.




LOL

White_knight 04-15-2020 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baue1446 (Post 3112156)
I was on the first list with Frog and fell asleep after 17 hours was at position 3(i know weak sauce) But im glad i did because for me to get my mask it would of taken me 19 hours more to get it in that list. So then i joined on Monday at 3am and got it after 19 hours. Which is pretty close to even as far as total time. But 40+ hours straight compared to two 17-19 hour is a MUCH different camp.

This weekends crew got 2 HUGE droughts of 15+ hours between drops. The one on monday never had more than a 3 hour drought. So it went pretty quick.

Wtf.

How do you explain this to partners and family?

Guys I am going to spend 40 hrs camping an item that makes me change shape.

Bring me pizza and meth so I dont fall asleep.


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