Reiwa
03-01-2025, 09:20 PM
What will it take? How bad will things need to get? And what would you be willing to accept?
Hypothetical maps and talk about secession are fine and interesting, but has anyone given any real deep thought to plausible scenarios where that could actually occur?
One thing I've noticed in other threads on this topic is that when the question of secession is brought up, there seemed to be a consensus of "maybe." That "maybe" usually depended largely on "how bad things got." Furthermore, I contend that Cascadian secession is only likely with a peer-state or near-peer providing support and protection for the nascent Cascadian nation or autonomous region.
So, with that in mind, I have laid out what the next few years could look like in a worst-case scenario regarding how bad things might get.
In the scenario below, would you support secession?
The Year is 2027. Over the past two years, the following has happened:
2025
The U.S. Department of Education, the Centers for Disease Control, Health and Human Services, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have been effectively eliminated.
Federal Protective Services and the Department of Homeland Security's jurisdiction and surveillance powers have been greatly expanded, with both becoming a federal police force.
All states and hospitals receiving federal funding are required to report regularly on the status of pregnancies to a federal "Family Support Agency." Anyone involved with an abortion is subject to conviction and sent to a federal prison.
Transgender people's U.S. passports have been voided, and state-issued IDs are no longer accepted at airports or border crossings.
2026
Federal funds to Oregon and Washington State were withheld after devastating fires and an earthquake in Cascadia, with the President tweeting on X: "LET THEM BURN!!!"
Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, after being drastically cut, have now been functionally eliminated.
Universities whose curricula run afoul of the administration’s views on climate science, diversity, and inclusion are punitively targeted by a weaponized Justice Department and IRS. Prominent academics are subpoenaed to testify in Congress to prove their innocence and loyalty to the administration, reminiscent of the McCarthy-era 1950s.
Transgender people are required to get an RFID chip implanted and a special tattoo, or their state IDs and driver’s licenses are voided, effectively restricting their movement, job opportunities, and participation in public life. States that oppose this requirement face a loss of federal funding.
National Public Radio and PBS shut down as pressure from the weaponized FCC forces them to go dark.
A prominent anti-fascist podcaster is arrested by the FBI and jailed after reporting on an alleged leak of a White House plan to have the Department of Homeland Security train, organize, and fund far-right extremist groups.
In reaction to an economic recession, rising unemployment, and high inflation due to tariffs, as well as the crackdown on civil and human rights, many take to the streets in protest. In scenes reminiscent of the 2020 protests, unmarked "snatch vans" kidnap several protesters, leaving their families with no idea where they are being held. This sparks further outrage, and police overreact—tear-gassing entire neighborhoods and assaulting peaceful protesters exercising their First Amendment rights.
The President declares martial law and sends armed soldiers into Seattle, Portland, and other cities and towns throughout the region to confront protesters. Under the President's orders, on a hot day in late August, federal troops open fire with live ammunition on protesters in Portland, Seattle, and Los Angeles: 48 dead, over 350 wounded, many in critical condition—most of them under 35, including numerous students.
Under a new "jobs program," internment camps across the U.S. are constructed to facilitate larger mass arrests, not only of undocumented people but also of unhoused individuals and political dissidents. The media reports favorably on this development, framing it solely as a means for mass deportations while failing to mention who else is being detained. Visits by the press are highly staged, closely monitored, and reduced to mere photo ops.
2027
In a negotiation with Congress to lift martial law and quell rumors of the 2028 election being canceled, Congress moves quickly to allow the President to run for an unprecedented third term.
Pro-Cascadian sentiment has been rising and reaches an inflection point, with the first large-scale "Free Cascadia" protests taking place across many cities and towns in the region.
Same-sex marriage is overturned by the Supreme Court, and it begins hearing a case challenging the recognition of interracial marriages.
Journalists critical of the administration begin to be jailed for no stated reason as a form of intimidation. Camera crews have their equipment confiscated or destroyed. What remained of an independent press is no more.
A series of large-scale, coordinated mass shootings in primarily Black and Latino neighborhoods, as well as in LGBTQ+ nightclubs and bars, occur in major cities along the West Coast. The attacks are linked to the same far-right neo-Nazi organizations believed to have been assisted by the Department of Homeland Security.
Rumors and reports spread on Bluesky that transgender people are being arrested, detained, and sent to internment camps for no reason other than existing.
A widespread electrical blackout occurs across the U.S. Chinese drones are suspected of causing it, in reaction to increasing tensions surrounding Taiwan.
The West Coast Governors Alliance, along with the attorneys general of California, Oregon, and Washington and the Cascadian Mayors Association, issues a statement of non-compliance and opposition to the many illegal actions being carried out by federal authorities within their state and local jurisdictions. Among their declarations:
State National Guard troops will not comply with orders that violate the U.S. Constitution.
They will defend their populace against attacks by far-right militias.
China, observing these developments, issues a public statement supporting the rights of Cascadia and other West Coast states to defend themselves against attacks by forces from Washington, D.C. The Chinese government further states that if requested, it would be willing to provide protection for a negotiated resolution that makes sense for all parties.
If all of that happened, would you be willing to ask for China's help in a negotiated national divorce from the Fascist States of America, or would you think that somehow this would all just resolve itself if we all just waited long enough?
(stolen from r/Cascadia on reddit)
Hypothetical maps and talk about secession are fine and interesting, but has anyone given any real deep thought to plausible scenarios where that could actually occur?
One thing I've noticed in other threads on this topic is that when the question of secession is brought up, there seemed to be a consensus of "maybe." That "maybe" usually depended largely on "how bad things got." Furthermore, I contend that Cascadian secession is only likely with a peer-state or near-peer providing support and protection for the nascent Cascadian nation or autonomous region.
So, with that in mind, I have laid out what the next few years could look like in a worst-case scenario regarding how bad things might get.
In the scenario below, would you support secession?
The Year is 2027. Over the past two years, the following has happened:
2025
The U.S. Department of Education, the Centers for Disease Control, Health and Human Services, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have been effectively eliminated.
Federal Protective Services and the Department of Homeland Security's jurisdiction and surveillance powers have been greatly expanded, with both becoming a federal police force.
All states and hospitals receiving federal funding are required to report regularly on the status of pregnancies to a federal "Family Support Agency." Anyone involved with an abortion is subject to conviction and sent to a federal prison.
Transgender people's U.S. passports have been voided, and state-issued IDs are no longer accepted at airports or border crossings.
2026
Federal funds to Oregon and Washington State were withheld after devastating fires and an earthquake in Cascadia, with the President tweeting on X: "LET THEM BURN!!!"
Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, after being drastically cut, have now been functionally eliminated.
Universities whose curricula run afoul of the administration’s views on climate science, diversity, and inclusion are punitively targeted by a weaponized Justice Department and IRS. Prominent academics are subpoenaed to testify in Congress to prove their innocence and loyalty to the administration, reminiscent of the McCarthy-era 1950s.
Transgender people are required to get an RFID chip implanted and a special tattoo, or their state IDs and driver’s licenses are voided, effectively restricting their movement, job opportunities, and participation in public life. States that oppose this requirement face a loss of federal funding.
National Public Radio and PBS shut down as pressure from the weaponized FCC forces them to go dark.
A prominent anti-fascist podcaster is arrested by the FBI and jailed after reporting on an alleged leak of a White House plan to have the Department of Homeland Security train, organize, and fund far-right extremist groups.
In reaction to an economic recession, rising unemployment, and high inflation due to tariffs, as well as the crackdown on civil and human rights, many take to the streets in protest. In scenes reminiscent of the 2020 protests, unmarked "snatch vans" kidnap several protesters, leaving their families with no idea where they are being held. This sparks further outrage, and police overreact—tear-gassing entire neighborhoods and assaulting peaceful protesters exercising their First Amendment rights.
The President declares martial law and sends armed soldiers into Seattle, Portland, and other cities and towns throughout the region to confront protesters. Under the President's orders, on a hot day in late August, federal troops open fire with live ammunition on protesters in Portland, Seattle, and Los Angeles: 48 dead, over 350 wounded, many in critical condition—most of them under 35, including numerous students.
Under a new "jobs program," internment camps across the U.S. are constructed to facilitate larger mass arrests, not only of undocumented people but also of unhoused individuals and political dissidents. The media reports favorably on this development, framing it solely as a means for mass deportations while failing to mention who else is being detained. Visits by the press are highly staged, closely monitored, and reduced to mere photo ops.
2027
In a negotiation with Congress to lift martial law and quell rumors of the 2028 election being canceled, Congress moves quickly to allow the President to run for an unprecedented third term.
Pro-Cascadian sentiment has been rising and reaches an inflection point, with the first large-scale "Free Cascadia" protests taking place across many cities and towns in the region.
Same-sex marriage is overturned by the Supreme Court, and it begins hearing a case challenging the recognition of interracial marriages.
Journalists critical of the administration begin to be jailed for no stated reason as a form of intimidation. Camera crews have their equipment confiscated or destroyed. What remained of an independent press is no more.
A series of large-scale, coordinated mass shootings in primarily Black and Latino neighborhoods, as well as in LGBTQ+ nightclubs and bars, occur in major cities along the West Coast. The attacks are linked to the same far-right neo-Nazi organizations believed to have been assisted by the Department of Homeland Security.
Rumors and reports spread on Bluesky that transgender people are being arrested, detained, and sent to internment camps for no reason other than existing.
A widespread electrical blackout occurs across the U.S. Chinese drones are suspected of causing it, in reaction to increasing tensions surrounding Taiwan.
The West Coast Governors Alliance, along with the attorneys general of California, Oregon, and Washington and the Cascadian Mayors Association, issues a statement of non-compliance and opposition to the many illegal actions being carried out by federal authorities within their state and local jurisdictions. Among their declarations:
State National Guard troops will not comply with orders that violate the U.S. Constitution.
They will defend their populace against attacks by far-right militias.
China, observing these developments, issues a public statement supporting the rights of Cascadia and other West Coast states to defend themselves against attacks by forces from Washington, D.C. The Chinese government further states that if requested, it would be willing to provide protection for a negotiated resolution that makes sense for all parties.
If all of that happened, would you be willing to ask for China's help in a negotiated national divorce from the Fascist States of America, or would you think that somehow this would all just resolve itself if we all just waited long enough?
(stolen from r/Cascadia on reddit)