Forest Loop

[ryeandi]

I've been camping this earring in Warsliks for the last 3-4 weeks, leveled 8 times, and have seen everything else in the loot table at least twice, but haven't seen or heard of a loop dropping once since I've been there. Anyone had this item drop at the Warsliks giant fort in the last month?

[Maliant]

I’ve killed hundreds of giants there and never seen it drop. I think it’s just really rare though.

[Canelek]

It is just stupid rare. I've had it drop once in WW and once in DL in the past year.

[elwing]

I got one a few weeks ago in frontier montain in the fort... I killed maybe 20 giants there... It's rare but dropping...

[Talakin]

I got 2 of them in the 8 levels I did at the WW giant fort. That was very lucky though, I have talked to many who never got one.

[ryeandi]

I've done 8 levels (about 450 Giants) and I haven't seen one. Whenever I group I ask if anyone's seen one recently, none have. I'm guessing I've just been terribly unlucky but confirm that nothing's broken.

[Canelek]

It was also just as rare on live.

[Oleris]

I have probably gotten 3-4 total leveling both my necro and monk at the warslik, frontier mountain and burning wood camps. They used to sell for thousand platinum back then.

[Legidias]

Ive gotten more gem encrusted rings in BW than forest loops

[Xap]

I've leveled a good 8-10 characters there and only ever seen one! It's super super rare.

[Gozuk]

Entertaining offers on a pair of pre nerf Forest Loops please PM

[Tethler]

I leveled 2 characters from 22-30ish at the warsliks giant fort. Maybe saw 3 drop in those combined 16 levels. Saw 1 drop at the FM fort, but have spent significantly less time there.

[KansasComrade]

i got like 8 levels there and saw 3 drop, sorry bro. RNG is a pure asshole. On the upside, it owes you some quick camps now.

[Notwotwo]

Yes, I had one in like 3 hours. So it should works

[Busher]

As most have said, it seems to be awful rare in WW giant fort. I never saw one in 5 levels there. Unless you're a wisdom caster, I'd rather have https://wiki.project1999.com/Cougar_Claw_Earring anyway.

[Jimjam]

I found some in frontbottom mountains.

[ryeandi]

The wiki lists a .4% chance of A Forest Giant Greenwood (https://wiki.project1999.com/A_Forest_Giant_Greenwood) dropping the earring. I'm assuming that the other giants in the zone have a similar chance at dropping it. So, having killed about 450, there's about a 16.5% chance that it wouldn't have dropped for me. If those numbers are correct, I'll guess I've just been unlucky. Bummer.

[kruptcy]

The wiki lists a .4% chance of A Forest Giant Greenwood (https://wiki.project1999.com/A_Forest_Giant_Greenwood) dropping the earring. I'm assuming that the other giants in the zone have a similar chance at dropping it. So, having killed about 450, there's about a 16.5% chance that it wouldn't have dropped for me. If those numbers are correct, I'll guess I've just been unlucky. Bummer.

Yeah, and who knows how accurate that 0.4% is for the Greenwoods,much less how that would compare to the lower level giants in the zone. Dealing with such tiny percents, luck plays a lot into the assumptions. I am assuming that Wiki doesn't have data from 100,000 kills of Greenwoods.

[ryeandi]

Yeah, and who knows how accurate that 0.4% is for the Greenwoods,much less how that would compare to the lower level giants in the zone. Dealing with such tiny percents, luck plays a lot into the assumptions. I am assuming that Wiki doesn't have data from 100,000 kills of Greenwoods.

I'm thinking my best bet is to concentrate on the Evergreens. From having killed so many of these things I've noticed that Saplings drop 0-1 items, Greenwoods and Forest Giants drop (0-2) items (discounting ringband), and the Evergreens drop (0-3) items (discounting ringband). On average it seems like Evergreens drop one more item per kill than the Greenwoods. I'm going to assume that every item dropped has an equal chance of being the earring. The assumption seems to be backed up looking at the difference in the reported drop data on the wiki. Despite the small sample size, the Evergreens show a higher chance at almost everything on the loot table per kill than the Greenwoods. I assume this is due to the fact the Evergreens drop more loot.

[Legidias]

The wiki lists a .4% chance of A Forest Giant Greenwood (https://wiki.project1999.com/A_Forest_Giant_Greenwood) dropping the earring. I'm assuming that the other giants in the zone have a similar chance at dropping it. So, having killed about 450, there's about a 16.5% chance that it wouldn't have dropped for me. If those numbers are correct, I'll guess I've just been unlucky. Bummer.

That's not how statistics work lol. The chances arent additive (if one giant doesn't drop one, it's drop rate is not added onto the next one).

After killing 450, your next giant is still that 0.4% chance drop.

[ryeandi]

You are correct. The chance of the next giant dropping the earring is .4% (1/250). But this is exactly how probability works. If the chance of any one giant dropping the earring on any kill is 1/250, the chance of the earring not dropping on any one kill is 249/250. The chance of not having seen a single earring drop in 450 kills would be (249/250) ^ 450 which is .1647 or about 16.5%. If the earring drop rate per kill is in fact .4% (pointed out above to be in question), 83.5% of players killing 450 Forest Giant Greenwoods will have seen at least 1 earring drop and I would be in the 16.5%.

[Legidias]

Ah, I thought you were trying to say that after 450, you should have a 16% chance of it dropping.

[ryeandi]

Nope, unfortunately when I go home to try this again later there'll still be a 1/250 chance of me getting the drop if I kill a single Greenwood. Doing some hack-math I think there's about a 1/125 of any one, non-ringband loot drop spot being an earring. Evergreens seem to have more loot per kill so I give my chance at getting the earring on any one of those kills at .6%. If that's true, I have a 93.4% chance of getting the earring before I kill 450 of those guys.

[lctucker2999]

I put your chances of getting a forest loop drop at 32.333% chance (repeating of course)

[ryeandi]

I put your chances of getting a forest loop drop at 32.333% chance (repeating of course)

I put my chances at 100% because at this point I'm obsessed and I'll kill ever damn giant in the game until I do.

[katrik]

I fucking hate this item. I’ve camped it over and over again and have never seen it.