Earthquakes

[Maliant]

Totally random.

[Nommis]

I'm just thankful we have them, cheer up.

[Maliant]

I’m glad we have them and they are totally random, amiright?

[Nibblewitz]

Lacks hard data and large sample size.

Lol

[MagpieRockyl]

Thankful to have totally random bowel movements that happen twice a month

[ZiggyTheMuss]

This nerd seriously complaining?

[Phenyo]

Earthquakes are usually caused when rock underground suddenly breaks along a fault. This sudden release of energy causes the seismic waves that make the ground shake. When two blocks of rock or two plates are rubbing against each other, they stick a little. They don't just slide smoothly; the rocks catch on each other. The rocks are still pushing against each other, but not moving. After a while, the rocks break because of all the pressure that's built up. When the rocks break, the earthquake occurs. During the earthquake and afterward, the plates or blocks of rock start moving, and they continue to move until they get stuck again. The spot underground where the rock breaks is called the focus of the earthquake. The place right above the focus (on top of the ground) is called the epicenter of the earthquake.

[fan D]

Red hasnt received an earthquake in i dont know how long, the last 6 months ive been playing

[Swish2]

Last big GM event I remember on red was years ago involving an iksar GM and Dagnor's Cauldron.

[Bboboo]

Remember said Iksar GM swearing he would never do a red GM event ever again, looks like he was right.

[Just facts]

This nerd seriously complaining?

/This

[Fragged]

https://i.imgur.com/uR4WuQ0.gif

[Scoojitsu]

The place right above the focus (on top of the ground) is called the epicenter of the earthquake.

Don't they say in the news, the epicenter is for example 5km below the surface?

[Doil_Boil]

Maliant didn't play kunark era clearly, where earthquakes were 2-3 times a year and a real treat.

[mattydef]

Ever since they started the two quakes a month there hasn't been one before the 10th and the second quake is always on the 27th or after.

[Jimjam]

I suggest we gather all of the druids of the server to ToV, pull a bunch of trash and have 600 characters cast Earthquake at the same time to induce repops.

[skarlorn]

This thread is proof that it's better to never give people ANY pixels lest they cry about when the pixel dole is granted

[beargryllz]

n < 10,000; can't ascertain any significant data on whether they are random or not

[Jimjam]

This thread is proof that it's better to never give people ANY pixels lest they cry about when the pixel dole is granted

Tis better to loot and to lust, than to never loot at all.

[Mytral]

how is making an observation complaining?

[Bboboo]

Ever since they started the two quakes a month there hasn't been one before the 10th and the second quake is always on the 27th or after.

https://i.imgur.com/o0Z7mfl.gif

[Maliant]

There also has not been an earthquake during hours GM’s do not play. Patterns can be postulated with small sample sizes to hypothesize outcomes when there is not a large amount of data available. People do this in science and mathematics all the time. It doesn’t mean it’s definitive proof. It’s interesting to me is all, considering the GMs said the earthquakes are totally random. Anyone who took me creating a thread on Earthquakes as complaining is mistaken, I didn’t post this in RNF and if anything it benefits me if they aren’t actually random.

[Canelek]

Well, once you guys lean in close enough, you'll get the load in your face.

pewpew

[Llandris]

Were all unemployed so your theory of quakes only happening when we can be around is off

[Dreenk317]

Easy to fix, have one level 35 or lower mob that is scripted to trigger an EQ when it dies. Also, when it dies, this ability randomly jumps to another lvl 35 or lower mob in any zone.

Not only would the quakes actually be random. But it would also encourage exp groups to go explore all those old zones no one goes to anymore.

[joppykid]

Easy to fix, have one level 35 or lower mob that is scripted to trigger an EQ when it dies. Also, when it dies, this ability randomly jumps to another lvl 35 or lower mob in any zone.

Not only would the quakes actually be random. But it would also encourage exp groups to go explore all those old zones no one goes to anymore.

Exp Groups? This would ruin the server completely. Raid guilds would just flood all the lower level zones and wipe everything out.

[Baylan295]

Were all unemployed so your theory of quakes only happening when we can be around is off

Llandris you know that we are the unemployed ones.

[Jimjam]

When is the next quake, then?

[MagpieRockyl]

When is the next quake, then?

Tomorrow

Or the day after

Or the day after that

[Mytral]

Earthquakes

10/10/2017
10/28/2017

11/16/2017
11/30/2017

12/28/2017
12/31/2017

1/20/2018
1/28/2018

2/11/2018
2/27/2018

3/13/2018
3/29/2018

4/16/2018
4/29/2018

5/23/2018
5/31/2018

6/26/2018
6/??/2018

[Dolalin]

Random just means unpredictable. It doesn't mean evenly distributed.

[mefdinkins]

I appreciate the fact that it is not random because no one wants to be on wave 18 of a Ring War or be 85% done with a Plane of Growth clear and have an earthquake?

The problem is people min max so crazily so when the window for the last one gets to 2/3 days left people start acting crazy - it eliminates some of the randomness aspect of it. "What the hell are you doing in EC buying food/water and selling?!!?!? WE HAVE AN EARTHQUAKE COMING PEOPLE?!!?"

[feniin]

Yeah, I don't even want to log in again until July. These next few days are going to test the limits of how much poop a tube sock can really hold.

[m00r5tuD]

Earthquakes

10/10/2017
10/28/2017

11/16/2017
11/30/2017

12/28/2017
12/31/2017

1/20/2018
1/28/2018

2/11/2018
2/27/2018

3/13/2018
3/29/2018

4/16/2018
4/29/2018

5/23/2018
5/31/2018

6/26/2018
6/??/2018

sooo average second quake is the 29th. Clear you schedules on Friday boys!

also can we stop doing weekday afternoon quakes? i work 4 hours a day and somehow have missed 2 out of the last 3 quakes. if this keeps up i'm gonna have to put in my 2 weeks so my raid attendance doesn't fall too far.

[eudaimonia_etc]

It's obvious at this point, but here's some statistics. Using a Chi-Square test to see if the distribution of earthquakes matches a uniform distribution over the days of the month (i.e. if earthquakes were rolled strictly randomly), we find, with p < 0.00, the earthquakes are not distributed uniformally. It's easy to tell from the density plot as well.

#mypocketprotectorisbig

https://i.imgur.com/Q1FLW1o.png

[Dolalin]

Looks like the first one is randomly distributed across the month (that's a decent Gaussian centered on the middle of the month), but the second is weighted to the end of the month then.

15th +/- 14
29th +/- 2 ?

Not sure why the weighting for the second one.

[Baylan295]

Small sample size much?

[branamil]

Classic patches would not have occurred during US workday. Verant would have deployed them off peak hours like beginning of day or end of day

[eudaimonia_etc]

Normally distributed earthquakes nilbog? You devil.

[Dolalin]

If I had to guess it's probably an artifact of how they've coded up the schedule. Maybe they're trying to space out both earthquakes from each other by some minimum amount, but the second earthquake is artificially constrained by the end of the month, so it's clustering there.

[Triiz]

GM's should make it so 1 - 3 mobs per earthquake drop no loot at all or drop like 2 bone chips and a backpack.

[pogs4ever]

Give quakes a chance to skip!

[Mblake81]

also can we stop doing weekday afternoon quakes? i work 4 hours a day and somehow have missed 2 out of the last 3 quakes. if this keeps up i'm gonna have to put in my 2 weeks so my raid attendance doesn't fall too far.

..or have no quakes. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLMGCjUhIDA)

[m00r5tuD]

..or have no quakes. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLMGCjUhIDA)

my exact reaction when i just get to work and i get the quake batphone

[clacbec]

You guys need à life

[Doil_Boil]

Didn't Sirken say that earthquakes are random?

Stop bitching about getting so many fucking mobs. In Kunark era earthquakes were like 3-4 times a year and there were less than half the targets.. QQ more.

[Llandris]

Didn't Sirken say that earthquakes are random?

They are done randomly, only done by sir nilbog himself

[LulzSect©]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8d4RtvMQp10

[Baylan295]

They are done randomly, only done by sir nilbog himself

Small sample size caveat included, at this point there are certainly indicators that the EQs are not completely random. I would certainly say unpredictable... but not quite random, based on the evidence available.

[Darkyle]

I think they should do an Earthquake minutes after the first one now.

[pogs4ever]

I am doubting the quality of education you guys have received at the academy of arcane sciences.

[Mytral]

Didn't Sirken say that earthquakes are random?

Stop bitching about getting so many fucking mobs. In Kunark era earthquakes were like 3-4 times a year and there were less than half the targets.. QQ more.

Who's bitching about getting mobs?

[Mblake1981]

Small sample size caveat included, at this point there are certainly indicators that the EQs are not completely random. I would certainly say unpredictable... but not quite random, based on the evidence available.

I am doubting the quality of education you guys have received at the academy of arcane sciences.

Quality comment. I suspect a Gnomespiracy.

[Doil_Boil]

Who's bitching about getting mobs?

Just saying, people brewing up a ruckus about earthquake timing.. It's far more predictable than it was, and more people are getting raid content.

[Baler]

https://i.imgur.com/aeZ6Vda.gif
Let it Quake!

[Jimjam]

Each server tick should just have a 1/216000 chance to earthquake. Would lead to RNG hilarity of earthquakes spawning on top of each other or months with no quake. Nerds said they want random, give them randumb.

[Foxplay]

Maybe sirken is waiting for a raid guild to anger him again, hand them a suspension, and immediately smash the quake button like he smashes hot pockets