Green Dracgonscales Droprate

[Culkasi]

So, the last 18 Sevs have dropped only 2 Green Dragonscales giving a droprate of 11% - that seems to be very much on the low side? Any chance loot table is buggered somehow?

[Ele]

Would people report it as a bug if he dropped scales 16 out of 18 times or just say they are lucky?

[Culkasi]

I can't speak for others, but I would report it as a potential bug

[Erati]

Hoshkar drop rate has been terrible as well - only 1 Green Scale since the update in the patch

I think its been like 7 ish Hoshkar to see 1

[Raev]

How to not bugreport randomness
By: Raev, <Monk Death Squad>

EverQuest, in an attempt to be maximally addictive, has random rewards. You may slay the monster or finish the quest, and yet unless you are deemed worthy by the RNG you will not recieve your glorious Pixel. So you, the poor pixel fiend, have been performing a task with a random reward and the RNG has been fucking you. You are concerned that there may be a bug. But it could just be bad luck! How can you tell?

Fortunately, we have a whole branch of mathematics devoted to answering precisely this question (well, probably Pearson and Gauss were not considering this particular application, but that's the marvel of abstract science!) and have Wolfram Alpha to do the dirty work. Simply enter this input (https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=probability+of+%3C2+successes+in+48+trials+with +p%3D1%2F13) and edit successes, trials, and probability and presto! You'll know exactly how unlucky you were. A 5% chance is the minimum required for a scientific journal, which is why most peer-reviewed research findings are wrong (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1182327/). Remember, eventually unlikely outcomes will occur. If there is a 5% chance of failing Garzicor and 8000 people try the quest, on average one sad soul will fail the quest 3 times in a row.

Examples:

18 Severilous kills give 2 green scales: successes = 2, trials = (18 * 2.5 = 45), probability = 1/13, Wolfram Alpha says: 1 : 10 (https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=probability+of+%3C2+successes+in+48+trials+with +p%3D1%2F13) -> sorry pal, you got fucked by the RNG
Vulak dropping two Abashi's Rods of Disempowerment (grats me and Quean :D): successes = 2, trials = 2, probability = 1/24, Wolfram Alpha says: 1 : 600 (https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=probability+of+%3C2+successes+in+48+trials+with +p%3D1%2F13) -> that's some serious luck!
48 hours without a fungi tunic: successes = 0, trials = 95, probability = 1/5*2/3, Wolfram Alpha says: 1 : 1 million (https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=probability+of+0+successes+in+95+trials+with+p% 3D.13) -> bug report

[Raev]

So, the last 18 Sevs have dropped only 2 Green Dragonscales giving a droprate of 11% - that seems to be very much on the low side? Any chance loot table is buggered somehow?

I may have had too much fun writing that post. Your intuition is correct: you were quite unlucky, but not so unlucky that there is likely to be a bug.

[Ciroco]

Then let's increase the sample size. What have the drop rates been for other guilds?

[Man0warr]

Nilbog has been known to use magelo.com drop rates. Here you go:

http://eq.magelo.com/item/11582

So super rare from Hosh. Sev should probably drop it a lot more - although Magelo sample size for Sev seems tiny compared to what it should be.

[Raev]

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=probability+of+%3C2+successes+in+48+trials+with +p%3D0.5

It's definitely not a 50% drop rate from Sev here

[Daldaen]

Nilbog has been known to use magelo.com drop rates. Here you go:

http://eq.magelo.com/item/11582

So super rare from Hosh. Sev should probably drop it a lot more - although Magelo sample size for Sev seems tiny compared to what it should be.

Hoshkar data should be completely thrown out from this because Magelo's data pulls from the post-revamp VP.