Blacksmithing Fine Plate and Beyond

[KENAK]

I've been having zero luck with my combines as of late, where I almost never have a skill up despite having 170 STR (or even 200+ when I have my buffs on).

It seems that for about every 20 combines I get one skill up, though earlier today I did 5 combines for Ornate Chainmail and 20 for Fine Plate Visors, where I did not get a single skill up.

Do skill increases become extremely rare in the ~180-190+ skill range, is my strength too low, or am I just extremely unlucky? Because it is incredibly frustrating to spend hours gathering materials to not have a single skill up. Not to mention the drain on my platinum. If I am not doing something wrong, I'll probably abandon this as it's not worth the hours upon hours of my time to see that little skill number increase by 1.

For reference, I have a blacksmithing skill of 191, and neither ornate chain mail nor fine plate visors tell me I can no longer increase my skill making them.

[loramin]

I'm no expert, but it was my understanding that you have the exact same chance to get skillup #2 as you have of getting skillup #202 ... it's just that skillup #202 requires far more expensive and/or rare combines.

I think it just boils down a very simple fact: the RNG is a bitch.

[Menemas]

I can't find the reference, but I remember reading somewhere that there seems to be a stretch around skill 200 where skillups are less likely. I remember after 215 or so I had much more frequent skillups.

[Feanol]

It's been my experience as well that 170-200-ish the skill-ups appear to slow down.

Although I have no data, I will say that I observed this trend Fletching. Usually you're doing sixty maybe eighty+ combines in one sitting (personal patience depending) so it's easier to see the consistency of skill ups. Observed lag as I got closer to 200.

[Cecily]

Generally takes more combines per skill up, particularly 200+. You'll still get chains of skill ups back to back, but expect 50-100 combine gaps too.